Sanctus – The final polling before voting day tomorrow gives the DLP an edge over the SCP – but it also comes with a healthy warning that this vote share % may not translate into seats. The polling, conducted by Researchia for the Sanctarian National Times has the Democratic Left Party on 45%, with the Sanctarian Conservative Party coming in on 37%. The Greens are in third on 10%, the NSP on 5%, with Others/Independents on 2%, and finally the CUP with 1% of the vote nationally. There is a margin of error rate of 3%.
Polling has been sparse all throughout this campaign, with market research companies blaming the en-masse constituency re-drawings, seat reductions, and it being the first House election since Sanctaria being federalised. Researchia have said that though it looks like the DLP has a healthy lead over the SCP, that may not translate into a healthy majority of seats, as the more liberally progressive cities, where there are more voters, still only return 1 MP per canton, the exact same as the many more rural, traditionally conservative cantons that exist across the nation.
Researchia also pointed to the Christian Union Party, who trail the parties with only 1%, saying that’s a national number. “That 1% nationally, is 10% in Terra Monticolarum; with TM returning 68 seats, that 10% could mean anywhere between 5 and 15 seats for the CUP, just from that state alone”, their polling analyst Steven Jackson said. Conversely, Jackson pointed out that though independents and others are at 2% nationally, in no one state do they look like they can poll enough to win even 1 seat; this means all 5 outgoing independent MPs are on course to lose their seats.
On the current polling, it looks like the DLP will be returned with a very narrow majority, though Jackson and Researchia have stressed that while some races are likely/lean one party, the vast majority of races across the country would be classed as toss-ups – “communities have been moved around so much under the new redistricting, some constituencies are now two or three in two different states, it’s made forecasting bases of support for one candidate, or one party, so very difficult”. Researchia have said they’ve used the last state elections to give them some idea of how races in different polling districts will shake out “but you have to remember, what people vote for for the state assemblies is different to what people will vote for nationally; you’re thinking about the local school for state elections, you’re thinking about your taxes federally”, Jackson added.
GWEN COPLEY, Political Correspondent