Province-level elections are set to take place across all of Lauchenoiria’s eight provinces on the 8th April. Elections for the Provincial Parliaments, and consequently the First Ministers of each province, will take place in the six mainland provinces of Fleura, Melissa, Yervia, Ulinaria, Ecanta and Costeno, alongside the two islands, Aeluria and Butterfly Island. This will be the first set of major elections in Lauchenoiria since 2020, and these will be a measure of how the country has changed since the end of the civil war.
The elections will take place on Thursday 8th April, with polls open from 6am to midnight (except in Aeluria, where polls close at 11:30pm due to religious factors). Unlike in the previous set of provincial elections, which took place concurrently with national elections in 2020 following the adoption of a new national constitution, no disturbance is expected. The Anarcho-Communist Collective of Lauchenoiria (ACCL) and Warriors of Our Earth (WOE), the two groups deemed most likely to disrupt the election, have both released statements that they do not intend to take any action on election day.
Polling in advance of the elections has been inconclusive for most provinces, with likely winners changing week-to-week, indicating the likelihood of a very close election in these provinces. However, due to the changes made to boundaries during the adoption of a new constitution, it is impossible to tell if the polling methodology is still valid. The exception to this inconclusiveness is in Aeluria, where the Aelurian Independence Party (AIP) are all but guaranteed to remain the largest party, but without an absolute majority. While Aeluria voted against independence in 2019, many Aelurians see the AIP as the only party which will defend their rights and culture against the mainland, even those who do not want full independence.
Yervia will be one to watch, as the most left-wing province – and yet the least likely to vote for the Communist Party. The left of Yervia has long since rejected authoritarianism, and are much more likely to vote for the Left Alliance, Green Party, or the pro-independence Partido Anarquista de Yervia (PAY) despite the current conflict within PAY about whether those elected in their name should take their seats in a parliament their policy is to abolish.
Many will also be interested in the result in Melissa, where a new force has entered provincial politics claiming to support secession from Lauchenoiria… followed by union with Zongongia. Despite the Zongongian government denying any ties with the group, and stating that they would not support such a move, the group, Melissan Union With Zongongia, has become increasingly popular on social media and has held street stalls in all major Melissan towns every Saturday for the last month. It remains to be seen whether their online popularity will translate to votes.
