Sanctus – Chancellor Ethan Ringrose is considering calling a snap general election in place of two by-elections next month in order to capitalise on the falling support of the opposition Sanctarian Conservative Party and achieve a majority government, according to reports from sources within the Democratic Left Party leader’s inner circle of advisors.
Following the resignation from the House of former SCP leader and deputy leader Kate Cruz and Noreen Islington last month, two by-elections in Sanctus are due to replace the outgoing MPs. However with recent polling suggesting the SCP’s support in the capital, and other significant cantons around the country, have fallen by double-digits, Ringrose is reportedly weighing up the option to call a general election instead, and gain enough seats to ensure a DLP majority, something that eluded him in last year’s election.
Also apparently factoring in to Ringrose’s considerations is the popularity, or lack thereof, of their coalition partners Green Party in more rural cantons and whether or not ditching them before Green policies that will be unpopular with farmers and agricultural workers are enacted, will be better for the DLP’s electoral chances with those demographics now, rather than waiting until the next election when the effects of those new pieces of legislation is likely to see blow-back on the entire government.
Although the DLP-Green coalition have been working well together, many in the DLP are annoyed at compromises the party of having to take to appease their junior partners, including proposed ethanol taxes on farm vehicles, as well as defending threats made by the party to state governments claiming they’ll legislate to revoke devolved areas in transport and housing unless they bend to the federal government. Some, including some cabinet ministers, are also concerned that the Green Party is holding the country back on being more forceful with eco-terrorists around the world, as well as standing up to belligerent state actors.
Other commentators say, however, that Ringrose would not be necessarily in a good position should he try for a majority. Although the SCP’s fortunes across the country are down, and the Green Party’s small surge in many rural cantons now gone due to their proposed policies, the DLP are still coasting at the same level of support they were at during the last general election, with some polls giving them only a point or two increase on last year, which is in the margin of error. A lot of the fall in SCP support, according to these pollsters, is likely to be temporary due to the party’s financial scandals, and these voters, whose natural home would be SCP, would likely flock back in a general election in order to prevent a DLP majority government. Others may simply not turn out at all, which isn’t guaranteed to equal an increase in enough votes in some cantons to win back seats.
There is also the reality that, not even a year into government, Ringrose doesn’t have a lot of achievements to their name yet to prove to the voters they can do what they’ve promised. Though the economy is still steaming along, people with lower incomes haven’t yet felt the impact on their wallets the DLP promised they would, with the party’s “income tax equity” proposal still making its way through civil service checks and budgetary alignment processes. In addition, the successes the government have seen are either foreign policy, judicial, or actually Green Party policies like the free transport initiative. DLP driven successes that are domestic, such as closing loopholes that allowed millionaires get visas and citizenship easier, don’t have much of an impact on the majority of the population.
However, the fact the economy is continuing to do well will be a factor in his favour. Change elections only happen when the economy is doing badly or when the incumbent government have been in power for too long and policies and faces get stagnant. A Chancellor with less than a year under his belt means the government hasn’t yet had an effect on the economy and his policies and ideas are still new; should the principle hold true, it means a continuity election is more likely – still risky, but arguably better now than in 4 more years.
Ringrose is expected to make his decision in the coming week, and political observers will be keeping an eye out for increased grassroots activities, and positioning of candidates in cantons where they don’t have incumbent MPs, as signs another general election is on the way.
JOEY SESSIONS, Political Editor
