Currently, the identical referendums that will be up for a vote in December have a majority of support even when including those who have stated they won’t vote. In South Kaijan, 63.5% of voters support the referendum while in North Kaijan less support the referendum with 53.2%. Although the referendum would not start the Kaijan independence process, it would be an official statement of the desires of the people of both provinces for a change in political status. Already, Joseph Chavez has stated that he will respect the outcome of the referendum, with Minister of Internal Affairs, Sean Khan (Green-Silverado) stating that if passed his department would organize a meeting with leaders from both provinces. Though many in Kaijan remain skeptical of this and national politics as a whole with both Joseph Chavez and Brooke Weasley having negative approval ratings in both Kaijanese provinces.
There is no constitutional precedence for a province leaving Slokais, let alone two together. Legal experts have suggested that a province could leave the same way either through a majority vote of citizens within the province and then be approved by the President. If this were the case, Brooke Weasley has avoided the issue of Kaijanese independence as either position could alienate many within her political coalition, the Conservatives have attempted to appeal to Kaijanese voters on social policy and contributed to Weasley’s narrow electoral victory in 2022.
Another result supported by many in Kaijan and among left-wing politicians is that Kaijan has the right to declare independence if the resolution is passed, arguing that a vote by the people of both provinces is a statement of self-determination defined by international agencies. The leader of the Kaijanese People’s Party, Albakil Al-Jikiri has stated if the resolution is passed he would abstain from the Slokaisan Legislature. Al-Jikiri has quickly emerged as a charismatic leader, especially among the youth of Kaijan. Unlike much of the Slokais Islands, both North and South Kaijan have over 40% being under 30. Al-Jikiri is a K-Beats singer who has performed impromptu concerts in various cities throughout Kaijan.
Despite a majority favoring a change in the political status of Kaijan, the pro-government political factions are just as organized. Particularly the Minjian community has rallied to oppose independence. The primary argument is that Kaijan is unstable and needs continuing govermeant intervention for economic and social stability. There are also fears that an independent Kaijan could favor Islam over the Minjian and Catholic minority. In September, a Minjian temple in South Kaijan was raided by Fakhur Jaysh Kaijanese (F.J.K) militants, and 5 people were killed including a police officer. Over the last few years, the Minjian minority has largely concentrated with some even arming themselves.
Regardless if the referendum is passed in December, Kaijan will be different from it. A young man identified in a Kaijan League propaganda video was quoted as saying. “If you want peace don’t give us ammo if they deny us our independence they might as well shoot themselves and get it over with, because the Kaijanese people will be strapped”