The 2024 Elections in Eiria are right around the corner, much to the excitement (and chagrin) of many voters. These elections will be held at every level, from town councils to the Chancellory. So, what does this round of elections hold in store?
The Chancellory
The incumbent Chancellor, Leah Stendē, has been campaigning for a second term for the past couple months. However, last week, Vice Chancellor Lynn Morrin announced that she would be running for her home Senate seat instead of being on the national ballot, citing a desire to return to legislative policy writing as her motivation for this shift. It is unknown at this time which committees Morrin may seek to be appointed to, but the committees of the Economy, National Security, Justice, and Budget are all rumored to be in consideration.
Replacing Morrin on the ticket will be Minister of the Economy Dr. Amelē Ward of the Centrist Party. Before being appointed to the Council of Ministers in 2022, she had previously been an adjunct professor at the Kauna Institute for Public Policy, the director of the Geminus Province Bureau of Single Businesses, and a member of the Lanćaster administration’s Council of Independent Advisors. Dr. Ward holds a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from Geminus Provincial University at Bukceda, a master’s degree in public policy from the University of Halstad, and a Doctorate in Economics from New Riga Research University.
Two other major tickets have been announced. The Progressive-Socialist block announced that they would put former Minister of Labor Pier Duvald on the ballot as their nominee for Chancellor, with Senator Zara Delīl (Socialist, Nordjura) as their Vice-Chancellor. Duvald is currently a professor of Legal Studies at Vaun University’s College of Law and Public Affairs, while Delīl is a prominent member of the Senate Budget Committee as well as the Committee of Health and Social Care. Both Duvald and Delīl have been vocal critics of the Stendē administration, mainly regarding economic concessions made to the Centrist and Moderate Right parties and the handling of the Aurian Civil War. “Chancellor Stendē has been much too willing to put Eirian soldiers in the line of fire just to cover for her lackluster foreign policy,” Delīl said to a group of reporters after a rally.
On the other side of the political spectrum, the Formido-Free Moderate Conservative leadership selected former Monter Governor Teō Duket (Formido) and former First Prosecutor for the city of Kolēnceda Jan Aininš (FMC). Before being a provincial Governor for eight years, Duket founded the manufacturing company NagPart and served as the Monter Minister of the Economy, while his running mate Aininš was a well-respected officer on the 6th District Police Force of Kolēnceda and was a part-time legal analyst for the conservative think-tank The Kalnieks Group. Aininš was a bit of an unexpected choice to many established politicians, however his explosive opinion articles and videos have gained the attention of many conservative voters over the past year.
Only time will tell if the “Unity Alliance” (formerly the Serso Coalition) has enough steam to keep Chancellor Stendē in office unilaterally. Given that their ballot no longer has a Moderate Right firebrand, one must wonder if the campaign risks losing Moderate Right votes to Duket and Aininš. As both sides amp up their public campaigning, polling data should reveal whether or not that is something that Stendē has to fear.
The Senate as a Whole
This election season will be a very interesting one for a lot of Kōrtairs across Eiria. In particular, two parties are predicted to lose the most in 2024: The Progressives and the Moderate Left. The Progressives have seen their polling numbers consistently dropping since 2020, and that trend does not look to be slowing down any time soon. Likewise, the Moderate Left has seen the end of their rocket to the top, and are likely in for a rough election. However, it isn’t just stagnating polling numbers that they are facing. The bigger issue is that of the Eirian concept of “Lei Pensez ku Kra” – Or, in English, “The Falling Fifth.”
This concept comes from the legislative Kōrtair system. Each Kōrtair elects five Senators, for a total of 450. However, in each Kōrtair, there is a Senator who was appointed last (with the least number of votes for their party). This Senator is said to be at risk of “Falling off the cliff of votes,” and is likewise called the “Falling Senator” (Senatē ku Kra). As such, there are always 90 Senators (one fifth of the total) who are the most at risk of losing their seats.
The current “Falling” seats are distributed as follows:
Socialist: 2
Progressive: 17
Greens: 12
ModLeft: 38
Centrist: 3
ModRight: 4
FMC: 3
Formido:10
NI: 1
As you can see, the Moderate Left party holds 42% of the most risky seats, despite only holding around 29% of Senate seats. As such, Moderate Left politicians will have to work extra hard in order to either gain more votes for their party, or gain more internal votes (if they are in a Kōrtair with multiple of their party’s seats). This weakness opens the door for smaller parties (such as the Socialists, Centrists, and Moderate Right) to gain seats in areas that they previously had no foothold in.
Particular Senate Races
Here are a few Senate Kōrtairs to keep an eye on:
Monter 3rd:
According to initial polling data from the Kolēnceda Post, activist Aleks Lariā stands a very good chance of being elected as the first Socialist Senator from his province since 1998 after the wave of right-wing populism spread through the area.
Geminus 16th
Local polling has been, so far, a complete toss-up between all national parties.
Nordjura 11th
The Tervali League, a new, independent regional party dedicated to representing the Tervali ethnic group, has been polling further ahead than many analysts expected. The party’s front-runner, Tela Aransa-Kerlai, has voiced her appreciation for the spike in support. “The problems of our people may finally be heard. Perhaps we will gain two seats on our first try instead of one!”
Murdarbe 7th
The 7th Kōrtair of Murdarbe is one of the few strongholds that the Centrist party has (with two solid seats), however analysts have predicted that their turnout will be even higher than expected. There is a chance that they could gain a third seat, which is very uncommon for a party as small as the United Centrists.
Monter 4th
The extremely rural Monter 4th (a Formido stronghold) has been skewing much further right than even its immediate neighbors. However, the moderate right votes are a tossup between the United ModRights, the FMC, and the Formido Party.
(Article Translated from Eirian)
