Much depends on a certain holdout
With Huenya set to hold its first Presidential elections since the office was created in 2023, Incumbent President Xiadani is projecting huge optimism. “Our performance as an administration, and as a party, are the reason we are leading this election and have consistently done so,” the President told supporters at a rally for Unification Party candidates in the city of Melaque today. “People recognize results and success, and that’s why we’re going to win practically every race we’re in.”
While Xiadani’s rhetoric is certainly electioneering bluster, it’s not a huge stretch of reality. If elections were held today, rather than on their impending date of June 1st, polls show the Unification Party would pick up anywhere from 39 to 50 additional seats from the current 153 that it holds in the Chamber of Deputies. That surge would give the Unification Party unchallenged control of the legislative branch. The Chamber of Executives, the nobles’ branch of the legislature, is already essentially a 3-1 lock for the Unificationists in most votes. By dominating the Chamber of Deputies as well, the Unification Party would have few obstacles to implementing its desires.
The potential Unification Party dominance doesn’t end there. Unification Party candidates hold comfortable leads in all four state governors’ races (even the Necatli state, which has often been hostile to the party in the past). The twenty county executive seats up for grabs in each state, and even the numerous municipality races, are all trending sharply for the Unificationists as well.
One could forgive the denizens of One Unification Center if they felt they had this election, and indeed the entire country, in the bag. But with time rapidly ticking down until Election Day, one glaring gap in the armor of electoral dominance reportedly has voices raised more in concern than triumph at the Unificationists’ headquarters. And that is the Presidential race, the very same one where Xiadani should be expected to have it locked down.
After her handling of the Golden Blade insurgency, the President’s fortunes were riding high. They soared even higher after her major role in ending the crisis in Milintica, and bringing the almost universally hated regime of Neina Arana down. In the same polls touting the likelihood of Huenya painting itself in a sea of Unification Party blue, the President is trouncing her opponents. Her closest rival in the race, Eileen Finch of the Huenyan Centrist Coalition, is 18 to 30 points back in recent polls. Standard-bearers of other conservative parties such as Acxopotl and Popol are faring far worse. This isn’t surprising, since most of the gains of Xiadani and the Unificationists have been at the expense of conservative parties since the President began shifting her party sharply rightward. (We won’t even bother giving numbers for groups like the Democratic Socialists, Greens and Communists, whose support in Huenya has plunged to minuscule levels following the Milintican debacle.)
What, then, could derail the President’s seemingly unstoppable train carrying her right back into the Tecpancalli Tonaltzintli for the next three years? Only one thing: The Man From Ixtenco.
The Director of the Federal Intelligence Service, Cuetlancaona, is still debating whether or not to enter the race against the President. While he insists he isn’t, the fact that he is constitutes the most poorly kept secret the FIS has ever had. Even at this late stage of the game, if Cuetlancaona does decide to run, it could force Xiadani into a sudden battle instead of a graceful slide to a coronation. Cuetlancaona, even now, still comes within two to three points of the President in most polls. The Conservatives and the Party of Huītzilōpōchtli are openly courting Cuetlancaona even now. While both parties have candidates already, both of them have publicly committed to stepping aside for the FIS Director if he wants to take their spots. (Recruiting Cuetlancaona is their only shot at winning the presidency, and perhaps salvaging something from their impending disaster in the Federal Legislature, a fact that goes a long way to explaining the candidates’ unusual generosity.)
While there is still time for Cuetlancaona to shake up the race, his window is closing rapidly. He should decide, one way or the other, very shortly if he wants to pit his own popularity against the equally popular Xiadani. That unmade (at least publicly) decision will undoubtedly cause more heartburn and headaches in Unification Party circles than one might expect.
