William Garrison – Political Correspondent
The 2024 Maximusian federal elections are less than a month away and inconclusive polling results suggest that both the Presidency and control of the Senate remain up in the air. Although the Conservatives (NCP) have been dominant in federal-level politics over the past decade, major losses in 2022 lead many pundits to conclude that the party’s influence is waning, particularly as special interest and niche parties on the political right siphon away precious seats and votes. Worsening matters for the NCP, a recent opinion poll by the Litudinem Herald found that around 64% of young people (18-30) had an unfavorable opinion of Conservative presidential candidate, Richard Newman. Newman, the current Governor of Peoria and former petrochemical executive, remains highly popular in his home province, but, despite admirable campaigning across the nation, heavily trails liberal opponents throughout the south and other right-wing candidates in some rural districts.
If elected, Newman will succeed incumbent Conservative President, Lucas Brown, who was reasonably popular in his first term but has faced mounting opposition, both internally and externally, since 2020. While the Conservatives continue to deliver on promised tax reform, they have had difficulty balancing the nation’s budget and face increasing criticism for an apparent unwillingness to take a firm stance against foreign aggression, particularly the ongoing Xiomeran incursion into Huenyan territory. Although many Maximusians favor increased tariffs on Xiomeran imports, Brown took a firm stance against engaging in a trade war earlier this year and Newman has confirmed that he, similarly, does not view tariffs as an effective means of exerting influence abroad. Newman was quoted, “The biggest losers of every trade war are the hard-working men and women who clock in every morning and clock out every night, not those in power. I fight for Maximusian communities, not against them.” Despite this statement, Newman did vow to reevaluate his stance on the developing situation in Xiomera should they attempt to extend their military reach beyond the Huenyan subcontinent.
Newman, like his predecessor, is a vocal proponent of fiscal austerity measures and deregulation, aiming to unleash the Maximusian economy through tax cuts and the slashing of red tape. While this platform worked well for Brown, the political landscape has changed considerably since 2016 and the severing of certain social services has no doubt alienated some voters from the Conservative ticket. One commentator colorfully described Newman as “your dad’s conservative candidate; utterly without flare or charisma, but with a good head on his shoulders and a pitch worth listening to.” Rich Newman is expected to receive the highest support from business owners and suburbanites, particularly those between the ages of 30 and 55. Still, it remains unclear if he has the votes needed to cross the finish line and edge out strong opposition.
Across the aisle, Collin Lestrange, the Progressive candidate, is facing his own challenges shoring up the traditional center-left base in urban centers and the nation’s populous south. Rising star Party Viridis (Green) candidate, Iris Reeves, has run a tight campaign and is expected to scalp many usually-stalwart Progressive voters. Reeves, a 39-year-old environmental activist, attorney, and current Mayor of Holland Vale (a sizeable municipality of roughly 110,000 just 90 minutes north of Litudinem) has worked tirelessly since her mayoral election in 2020 to change the prevailing perception that Party Viridis is simply a cadre of climate activists and rabble-rousers. In her words, “Party Viridis stands not just for a green future and climate justice, but for sustainable, efficient urban development. That means promoting walkable communities through intelligent urban planning, and significantly increasing federal investment in education, infrastructure, and public transportation.” Many cities, particularly in the Maximusian Republic’s central provinces, have, indeed, become neglected over the past half century, having experienced an exodus of skilled workers, jobs, and wealth. As a result, a campaign predicated on urban reinvestment is likely to be extremely attractive to voters from these municipalities.
Polling suggests that Reeves’ message resonates with young, urban voters, and experts predict the highest turnout for the Greens since the party’s founding two decades ago. The Greens are anticipated to gain seats, however, support for Party Viridis outside of certain suburban areas and inner cities is extremely limited. It is unclear if Reeves has the votes needed to carry her ticket and party to the Presidency on the backs of urban voters and one-off activists alone.
Although Lestrange may lose votes to Party Viridis this year, the real victim of the proposed “green wave” will be Norman Blair, Labor Party candidate. The Labor Party, for nearly a decade now, has been in a losing internal battle with its various subfactions. This identity crisis has made the party appear directionless, a mere specter of the political powerhouse that was the Labor Party during the 1960s and ‘70s. Blair, a 65-year-old General Assemblyman and former steel-workers union liaison is an eloquent enough speaker with a tight platform, but faith in his party seems to have all but eroded and once novel Labor party policies have become mainstream across the political left. Blair has vowed to establish a federal-level minimum wage and limited rent ceilings, but both Lestrange and Reeves have promised to pursue similar policies. Worse still, Blair’s dry baritone and drab appearance make him a charisma vacuum compared to Lestrange and Reeves, both magnetic orators, and the right-wing opposition. The Labor Party is certainly the most pro-union, pro-cooperative platform, but only around 9% of Maximusian workers are unionized, so the union worker demographic block alone does not represent anywhere near enough votes to send Blair to Warbler Place in January. Labor and the Greens have a remarkably similar platform, so it is possible that developments between now and September 7 will swing urban voters back to Blair, but the betting odds certainly do not favor the labor advocate at this time.
Despite the sustained popularity of the Labor Party and the meteoric rise of Reeves, the Progressives, who currently hold a plurality of seats in the General Assembly, are expected to hold this lead and remain the dominant left-of-center party, at least, for 2024. The fate of Lestrange’s bid for the Presidency, however, remains an unsure bet. Collin Lestrange has all the right qualities for a successful bid. He holds an advanced degree in Economics from the University of Iustitia and flipped a traditionally center-right district to be elected as the Redbury area representative to the General Assembly in 2010. Lestrange is known for his captivating and eloquent, if lengthy, public addresses and, perhaps most importantly, has—by most experts’ estimation—successfully positioned his campaign as the true middle path, rejecting the extremes of both the right and the left. Notwithstanding these efforts, many of his opponents have portrayed Lestrange as a populist waffle who stands for very little and some pundits have suggested that the Progressive candidate’s efforts to present himself as the “vanilla” ballot option will simply draw would-be supporters towards other moderate candidates. Lestrange has vocally opposed the current, relatively free trade policies implemented by the Brown administration and vowed to meaningfully sanction Xiomeran imports, ideally to dissuade them from further belligerence towards neighbors and to promote a more lasting peace in Caxcana. Domestically, Lestrange has vowed to expand unemployment benefits and increase the federal pension, both popular policies among voters of working age and the elderly. While his platform is not quite as flashy as Reeves’, it has much broader appeal, and Lestrange is expected to receive votes from most major demographic groups, particularly in the southwest, but also in suburban regions across the nation.
Another candidate looking to expand his party’s traditional voter base this election cycle is Jack Sutton, the Christian Union Party candidate, who is looking to rebrand his faction as a moderate party for conscientious voters, moving away from more overtly theological-oriented policymaking. While the Christian Union remains committed to opposing gay marriage, a divisive position considering gay marriage was legalized across the Maximusian Republic a decade ago, Sutton promised to leave “settled legal matters” to legal scholars, instead focusing domestic policy on abolishing the death penalty and combating growing support for physician-assisted suicide and abortion access. Sutton also committed to increasing federal support for poverty relief and addiction intervention programs. During a campaign speech, Sutton called caring for the needy “the single most important calling of leaders and lawmakers, and the cornerstone of [the Christian Union] platform.” Sutton’s emphasis on public welfare is likely to earn him votes across the nation and demonstrates that the Christian Union remains a dynamic party that cannot be overlooked. Within the Maximusian federal-level political paradigm, the Christian Union occupies a unique position, poor bedfellows for conservatives thanks to economically liberal positions, but an equally uneasy ally for the left and moderates due to hardline stances on pressing social matters. While Sutton is unlikely to prevail at the polls this election season, particularly if past performance (such as a major loss of seats in 2020) is any indicator of future performance, moving the platform’s focus away from exclusively Christian social issues is likely to earn Sutton much-needed allies across the political spectrum.
While Sutton and Blair may be the two most conspicuous underdog stories in this race, Leland Woodsworth, the paleoconservative candidate for the Spirit of 1837, will have a similarly difficult road to Litudinem. The Spirit of 1837, thus named for the year of the outbreak of the Iustititian Civil War, rocketed into the political fray in 2004 with the stated goals to “cut, cut, and cut again” federal spending, balance the budget, and end excessive government encroachment on the rights of the people. Despite lofty aspirations, S37 has long been known as the party that sends only obstinate watch-dogs to the Senate, who, in turn, vote “nay” to every measure. In 2020, this perception turned to serve the party’s favor, as S37 assemblymen distinguished themselves as sedulous pacifists when the Maximusian Republic deployed troops in Vulkaria, a war that proved to be very unpopular, but mercifully brief. Leaning on his record as one of the few opponents to a wildly unpopular war, Woodsworth, an economist and former General Assemblyman, seems to be positioning himself as a principled man in unprincipled times. His platform includes greater federal-level accountability, slashing taxes and government spending, and a vow to never start, participate in, or contribute towards a foreign conflict. This means absolute neutrality towards developing situations not just in Huenya, but in other high-tension areas like Doatia, Eikangard, and Western Hesperida. Opponents of Woodsworth, naturally, claim that he will attack the federal pension (long considered a politically suicidal maneuver) and leave the nation’s most vulnerable without the help they need. Woodsworth, for his part, has confirmed that, if elected, he would work to defund certain federal programs, though he claims that simply “trimming the fat” from federal agencies and firing “nonessential bureaucrats” will be enough to put real money back in the taxpayer’s wallet, without needing to jeopardize critical services.
While Woodsworth is often described as a quintessential ideologue, highly impersonal, but unwavering in his convictions, the last major Presidential candidate, Captain Nicholas Hartley, a 41-year-old retired Maxiusian soldier and veteran of the Second Lauchenoirian Civil War, has run his campaign as the exact opposite, a proper “man-of-the-people,” perhaps the most populist-oriented candidate in a decade. Hartley has also generated considerable controversy thanks to a polarizing platform some have described as “far-right.” Libertas Universalis, Hartley’s party, has long supported major crackdowns on immigration, both legal and illegal, and aggressive foreign policy, but Hartley has focused the party’s central platform on domestic issues, hoping to appeal to hard-working Maximusians, particularly those in rural regions. Over the past year, Nick, as Hartley prefers to be modestly known, has made waves for his highly publicized public outings, meant to give the candidate a degree of “everyman” relatability. While fellow candidates held rallies and engaged in informal debates with one another, Hartley attended fairs, went camping and hunting with supporters, and even enlisted the help of celebrity chef Billy Jones to host a charity cook-out in his hometown just two weeks ago. According to recent polls, the tactic seems to be working, with several major surveys suggesting that Hartley could be leading the pack in Cambria and Winfield provinces. Hartley’s tough-on-crime position, an increasingly appealing platform as many of the Maximusian Republic’s largest cities have seen a minor uptick in crime over the past years, is likely to curry the candidate some favor in more densely populated areas, but his stance on immigration is expected to prevent any real inroads with most left-leaning to left-wing voters and may alienate moderates and some conservatives. It remains to be seen if Hartley’s everyman gambit will play well enough in September to send him to Warbler Place.
On September 7, less than a month away, the Maximusian people will have the opportunity to cast a ranked choice ballot to decide not just the fate of the presidency, but also to determine their next District Representative and to replace their province’s Senior Councilor on the Provincial Council. In short, much is at stake and every major party has a fighting chance to earn seats, though there will have to be losers for there to be winners. The new government, regardless of which party or coalition has the majority, will be formed on December 1 and will certify the next President on December 19, the final day before the holiday recess. The next Maximusian President will take office on January 1 of the new year.
